Recently, due to the impact of the coal-based ethylene glycol start-up load reduced to 54.67%, the domestic MEG integrated plant construction load fell to 72.57%; the downstream production and sales rates of various varieties have declined, but still in a relatively high level in recent times, into January In the middle of the year, downstream polyester enterprises began to suspend production. According to the plan, there will be 740,000 tons of capacity parking yesterday, and there will be nearly 3 million tons of capacity parking in the later period. The demand for ethylene glycol on the eve of the Spring Festival is not optimistic.

Ethylene prices in Asia remained stable and support for cost ends temporarily stabilized. The China-US trade consultation meeting has not released the results yet. The market recognizes that Sino-US trade friction may last for a long time, and the previous optimism has weakened. It is expected that ethylene glycol will run weakly in the near future.

Upstream crude oil has risen nearly 8% for 2 consecutive weeks

On January 11, international crude oil prices are expected to ensure a steady increase for the second consecutive week.

The financial market was boosted before, because China and the United States are expected to resolve trade disputes soon, and the crude oil production cuts led by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) began to reduce supply. ICE Brent crude oil and NYMEX crude oil rose sharply by nearly 8.8% and over 7% in the previous week, and this week's increase is expected to be roughly the same as last week.

On Friday (January 11), international crude oil prices are expected to ensure a steady increase for the second consecutive week. The financial market was boosted before, because China and the United States are expected to resolve trade disputes soon, and the crude oil production cuts led by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) began to reduce supply.

The Spring Festival is approaching, demand is not optimistic

Polyester has also recently been boosted by raw materials, and production and sales have remained at a high level. However, near the Spring Festival, polyester manufacturers are still mainly based on de-stocking, and the price increase intention is not strong. With the arrival of polyester production reduction stage, demand is declining. The downstream polyester industry's production and sales have slowly rebounded. Recently, the polyester factory price reduction promotion, POY150D is around 8150 yuan / ton, FDY150D price is around 9100 yuan / ton, DTY150D price is 10150 yuan / ton.

The prices of polyester staple fiber in the domestic market are running smoothly, the downstream mentality is cautious, and the procurement is mainly based on rigid replenishment. The MEG downstream polyester bottle and polyester chip market are at 8,000-8150 yuan/ton and 7650-7700 yuan/ton respectively, and the price is stable in the short term.

In the short term, it shows a low volatility trend.

The inventory of ethylene glycol ports in the main port area of East China is about 834,000 tons, an increase from the previous month. It is expected that the short-term East China port will arrive at around 188,000 tons of cargo, of which Zhangjiagang is expected to receive 102,000 tons. Currently, the operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol plants is 81%, coal-based ethylene glycol plant operating rate was 61%; domestic ethylene glycol supply was stable, port stocks rebounded, downstream polyester factory maintenance began gradually, supply and demand remained weak, demand weakened expected to suppress the market, B The spot price of diols is in a narrow range.

Technically, the EG1906 contract closed slightly lower, and the futures price was consolidated around the 50100 yuan/ton line. The top was under the pressure of 5200 yuan/ton, and the short-term trend was low.

In the medium term, the winter or the sound of the waves is still

In the first quarter of 2019, with the possible increase in oil prices and the easing of trade wars, the price of ethylene glycol is expected to be supported and even boosted. However, due to the limited increase in oil prices, the conduction effect is not very smooth at this stage. Therefore, the possible increase in the price of ethylene glycol is also small, and it can only bring short-term opportunities. In the second half of the year, the downward pressure on oil prices was large, and domestic ethylene glycol projects were put into production, and the supply side may have a substantial increase.

And with the domestic PX production capacity, the price of the entire industrial chain including ethylene glycol may be suppressed. Even if the trade war easing brings about a rebound in demand, it is more difficult to hedge the decline in ethylene glycol prices, and it is expected to show a downward trend.

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